US Job Openings (JOLTS) vs S&P 500: 2026 Divergence Persists: AI Boom or Recession Warning? 📉🤖
- DCAChampion
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Description:
The historical correlation between US job openings (from JOLTS data) and the S&P 500 has broken down dramatically since late 2022, and as of early 2026, the gap is widening. This chart overlay highlights a key macro divergence that traders should monitor closely for potential market shifts. 📊
Chart Setup on TradingView:
1. Start with the S&P 500 index: Search for "SPX" or "SP:SPX" as your main symbol. 🔍
2. Add a comparison: Go to "Compare" in the chart menu, search for "FRED:JTSJOL" (Job Openings: Total Nonfarm, sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data). ➕
3. Normalize for better visualization: Use percentage change from a baseline (e.g., November 2022) or index both to 100 at a common point. ⚖️
4. Timeframe: Monthly or weekly for longterm view; add a vertical line at November 30, 2022 (ChatGPT release date) to mark the divergence start. 📅
5. Optional indicators: Add RSI on SPX for overbought signals, or correlate with unemployment rate (FRED:UNRATE) for additional context. 📈
Key Data Points (as of February 3, 2026):
| Metric | Value | Change from Peak/Recent |
| Latest Job Openings (Nov 2025) | 7.146 million | 41% drop from peak of 12.134 million (Mar 2022) |
| S&P 500 Close (Feb 3, 2026) | 6,907.41 | +44% from Nov 2022 levels (~4,800), hitting new highs |
| Job Openings Rate | 4.3% | Down from 7.3% peak in 2022 |
| Historical Correlation (pre2023) | ~0.85 (strong positive) | Now near 0, indicating decoupling |
Analysis & Context:
Historical Trend: Job openings have traditionally mirrored stock market performance, as a tight labor market signals economic strength, boosting corporate earnings and investor confidence. From 20002022, the two moved in tandem through booms and busts (e.g., post2008 recovery). 📜
The Divergence: Starting around late 2022, coinciding with the public release of ChatGPT and the AI hype cycle, job openings began trending downward while the S&P 500 surged. Openings have fallen steadily (e.g., 303,000 drop in Nov 2025 alone), driven by sectors like accommodation/food services (148,000 drop) and transportation (108,000 drop), offset partially by gains in construction (+90,000). 🔻
Potential Causes:
AI Productivity Gains: Companies are leveraging AI tools to automate tasks, reducing the need for new hires while maintaining output. This "productivity paradox" allows earnings growth without labor expansion. 🤖💼
Economic Softening: Quits rate steady at ~2.0% and layoffs at 1.7 million suggest a cooling but not collapsing job market. However, if this persists, it could foreshadow weaker consumer spending. ❄️
Fed Policy & Inflation: With rates stabilizing, markets are pricing in growth, but labor data lags, creating a mismatch. 💰
Implications for the Economy: Bullish view: This is a "soft landing" where AI drives efficiency, supporting higher valuations. Bearish view: Divergences like this have preceded recessions (e.g., 2000 dotcom bust). If openings drop below 7 million, it might signal broader weakness, pressuring megacap tech stocks that have driven SPX gains. ⚠️
Actionable Insights for Traders:
ShortTerm: Watch tomorrow's JOLTS release (Feb 4, 2026) for December 2025 data: consensus expects ~7.23 million. A miss below 7.1M could trigger SPX pullback; consider shorting via SPY puts if it breaks 6,850 support. ⏰
MediumTerm Strategy: If divergence widens (openings <6.5M by mid2026), rotate from growth stocks to defensives (e.g., utilities, consumer staples). Target SPX upside resistance at 7,000; downside support at 6,800 (50day MA). 🔄
Risk Management: Use this as a macro overlay: pair with VIX for volatility spikes. Set alerts on TradingView for JOLTS updates via FRED integration. 🛡️
Trade Idea: Long SPX if openings stabilize above 7M (bullish confirmation); hedge with VIX calls if below. Position size: 12% risk per trade. 💡
What do you think: bullish on AI or bearish on labor? Share your views below! 🗣️
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