💡 GOLD FOMC Minutes Loom: Central Banks Keep Stacking as Safe-Haven Demand Surges 📈

💡 GOLD — FOMC Minutes Loom: Central Banks Keep Stacking as Safe-Haven Demand Surges 📈

Todays selected asset Gold chosen because FOMC Minutes release at 14 00 ET is the highest impact event of the day combined with gold trading near all time highs elevated volatility and strong central bank buying momentum making it the clearest story for traders right now.

### 1. Executive Summary

Investment thesis in 3 sentences Why should someone care about this asset right now.

Gold is the ultimate barometer for FOMC Minutes today as any dovish lean or continued uncertainty boosts safe haven demand while central bank buying provides a strong floor. The asset has been in a powerful structural bull market since 2024 driven by de dollarisation and moderating real yields. This makes it the standout asset for the New York session. 💎

Overall bias for this asset Bullish.

Expected price target today 5120 with the methodology based on current ATR historical reaction to FOMC Minutes and normal daily volatility for gold.

The single biggest reason to be long this asset right now is structural central bank demand and the single biggest risk is a hawkish surprise in the minutes. 🚀

### 2. Asset Overview

What the asset is in plain English.

Gold is the worlds premier safe haven and monetary metal used by central banks investors and industry.

Key drivers and what moves it most right now.

Central bank buying FOMC policy and real yields.

Fundamental context with positioning or flow insight.

Speculators are net long with strong ETF inflows.

Competitive or macro moat what makes this setup hard to replicate today.

Finite supply and structural demand shift from central banks make this rally hard to fade.

### 3. Price Action and Levels

Current price 5050 per ounce

Daily change plus 0.35 percent

Session high low 5065 5030

Key technical levels

Pivot Point 5045

R1 5080 R2 5110

S1 5010 S2 4980

Fundamental driver today FOMC Minutes plus ongoing central bank accumulation.

Short term expected move 50 to 120 dollars bullish bias into and after the minutes.

Bloomberg Gold Spot Price Historical Chart data through mid February 2026 Gold has extended its relentless rally climbing above 5000 with a clear acceleration driven by geopolitical uncertainty and Fed policy expectations strong upward trend with minimal pullbacks.

FRED series DFII10 10 Year Real Treasury Yield official chart data through early February 2026 Real yields have moderated from 2025 peaks but remain elevated around 1.8 percent creating a favourable environment for gold as the opportunity cost of holding the metal stays contained.

World Gold Council official central bank net gold purchases bar chart 2025 data Strong and consistent net buying across multiple countries blue bars dominant with Poland China and others leading the charge visually confirming the structural shift in official sector demand.

4. Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Bull case what has to go right and expected price target

Dovish leaning or neutral minutes combined with continued safe haven flows push gold to 5150.

Base case most likely scenario and expected price target

Balanced minutes lead to consolidation with gold at 5080.

Bear case what could go wrong and expected price target

Surprisingly hawkish tone triggers profit taking and quick drop to 4950.

5. Risk Analysis

Top 3 material risks ranked by probability and impact.

1. Hawkish FOMC Minutes high probability high impact trigger stronger USD and higher real yields watch for immediate 80 to 120 dollar drop.

2. Profit taking after recent rally med probability med impact watch for volume spike on any minutes leak.

3. Geopolitical de escalation low probability high impact reduced safe haven flows watch news flow from Ukraine and Middle East.

Positioning sentiment indicators speculators remain net long gold sentiment in Extreme Greed zone but supported by fundamentals.

6. Catalyst Calendar

Key events in the next 24 to 48 hours that will impact this specific asset.

14 00 ET FOMC Minutes primary driver for gold today.

15 00 ET RBNZ Rate Decision and Statement.

Tomorrow US housing data plus China holiday effects.

Strongest macro factor today real US yields FRED DFII10 and central bank policy divergence.

7. The Verdict

Bull case expected price target 5150 and what has to go right with probability estimate 60 percent.

Base case expected price target 5080 and most likely scenario with probability estimate 30 percent.

Bear case expected price target 4950 and what could go wrong with probability estimate 10 percent.

Probability weighted scenario.

Final conviction level High.

30 second elevator pitch

FOMC Minutes drop today while gold sits near 5050 with rock solid central bank support and moderating real yields. This is one of the cleanest high conviction setups in the market right now strong structural floor plus event driven volatility makes Gold the standout asset for the New York session.

## Sources

Bloomberg Gold Spot Price data and charts 18 Feb 2026

FRED series DFII10 10 Year Real Treasury Yield data through early Feb 2026 https fred.stlouisfed.org series DFII10

World Gold Council Central bank gold statistics latest 2025 data https gold.org goldhub